Seasonal Forecast for Spring 2012
(March – April - May 2012)
Multi model ensemble forecast for Spring 2012 indicates an increase in surface temperature and below normal precipitation for spring period on the Arabian region .
This is due to the early initiation of a heat low on the surface centered at the Arabian Gulf and the middle of Saudi Arabia. This situation will further deepen the drought condition in the Arabian Peninsula especially northern Arabian Gulf, Iraq, eastern slope of Sarawat Heights Mountains and inlands of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and eastern parts of Jordan causing an increase of sand storms and suspending dust aerosols occurrences.
With exception of minimizing drought effect on area received rain fall during this winter such as coastal area of eastern Mediterranean sea, Northern parts of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia.